Afghanistan at the Edge

Many Afghans still hope that NATO will again come back to Afghanistan and remove the Taliban from Afghanistan. But this will not happen. The NATO or US forces will not return to Afghanistan unless the Taliban makes the same mistakes they did in 2001.

Several countries and the United Nations are trying to find a way to work with the Taliban Government. Indeed, the Taliban wants to integrate into the international system. But there are many radical elements within the Taliban. There is currently a disagreement between the Taliban higher management about the policies and strategies to follow to work with the international organizations. Some support a softer approach (like Mullah Baradar), and some insist on the sharp and robust implementation of Sharia Law (like the Haqqani group).

But it would be helpful if the Taliban follows how Saudi Arabia or Gulf countries apply the Sharia law. Although these countries are using the Sharia, they are well connected with the world.

If the Taliban insists on their current policies and strategies, then they will be only to work with a limited number of countries. No international funding or investment will reach Afghanistan. If this happens, then the Taliban will not be able to control the public unrest in the country. The economic situation is already terrible in the country. Millions of people and children are suffering from hunger. With the coming winter conditions, the problem can be even worse.

Therefore, the Taliban should urgently do the below actions;

* Opening the borders to all international humanitarian assistance organizations and groups

* Call for international assistance from the entire world

* Immediately make the airports fully operational and let the people travel to/from Afghanistan freely.

* Urgently revise the ministers and appoint the ones who can work with the international community more easily

* Declare a full peace with the resistance forces and share the power in the country

On the other hand, the international community should openly and publicly share its conditions to work with the Taliban government. Especially the United Nations Security Council should declare the requirements to work with the Taliban. There should be one single voice that should come out from the United Nations. But as it is, each UN organization has a different strategy and way to work with the Taliban. Such as Afghanistan, UNDP calls its staff to resume their work in Afghanistan. However, several other UN agencies are setting up their offices either in Kazakhstan or Pakistan. Some of them moved their actions to their headquarters. The UN and other critical international organizations like the IMF, the World Bank, and the EU should announce their expectations from the Taliban Government to work together. The Doha process was not transparent at all. In the end, the Doha process failed. Therefore, the international community and the UN should not repeat the same mistake and be fully transparent about the relations with the Taliban.

At the same time, the resistance forces (led by Ahmad Masood) is looking for international support. It is also clear that Ahmad Masood can not achieve much unless millions of Afghans join him and have international support. Of course, Tajikistan and India are the most worrying countries about the situation in Afghanistan. They are providing some support to Ahmad Masood. During the wintertime, Ahmad Masood will try to gain more resources and be ready for a large scale offence as of March 2021. If this happens, it is unavoidable that there will be a proxy war between the several countries and groups in Afghanistan (like it is in Yemen and Syria). If this happens, there will be a severe negative impact on civilians. There will be large scale migration out from Afghanistan and humanitarian crises. Therefore, every day from today until spring is important to establish sustainable peace in Afghanistan. If the Taliban wants to, they need to take the first steps. At the same time, the UN Security Council should do its best to avoid further chaos in Afghanistan.