Game Of Syria

On 15 August 2021, the Taliban, which still is on the terrorist list of the UN, took over Kabul and the entire of Afghanistan without any single resistance either from the Afghan army (350,000 armed soldiers) or NATO forces (at least 8000 soldiers). Since then, the country has been ruled by the Taliban in cooperation with the Haqqani group.

On 7 October 2023, the Hamas attacked Israel and killed around 1000 civilians participating in a festival. This was 9/11 of Israel. As the US Government did after 9/11, Israel launched a full-scale war against Hamas and Hezbollah. However, Israel targeted not only military targets but also civilians. A total of around 45,000 Palestinian civilians died until December 2024. Israel also attacked and killed two Hamas leaders many Hezbollah senior managers and fighters, and Iranian commanders in Syria. Iran couldn’t respond to Israel’s attacks. Though Iran did some symbolic drone attacks on Israel, it didn’t cause any damage to Israel. Overall, Israel managed to cut the linkage between Hezbollah and Iranian militias based in Syria.

On the other hand, Russia was fully engaged in Ukraine and didn’t have enough resources for Syria. As a result, Israel’s spider web around the Bashar Assad regime was completed. The final touch came from Hayat Tahrir Sam (HTS) terrorist group which took over Damascus in a few days without any resistance. Of course, it is still a question mark why Russia didn’t use any warplanes to secure Damascus. We saw the same situation in August 2021 in Afghanistan. We still don’t know why NATO troops didn’t show any resistance while the Taliban was capturing Kabul. The Syrian army didn’t resist much, and HTS took over Damascus on December 8, 2024.

Obviously, the main winner of the first part of the Game of Syria is Israel. Turkiye also managed to remove the PYD from the Western part of the Euphrates River and is one of the key players in the design of the new Syria. Also, Turkiye will play a critical role in establishing a new government and rebuilding the country. Furthermore, the Turkish Government wants Syrian refugees to go back to their countries, given the war ended. Indeed, a small amount of Syrians have already passed the border and went to Syria. However, most of these people were alone and had just gone to Syria to see the situation before moving with their families.

Part one of Game of Syria didn’t go well for Iran. Iran lost its entire control over Syria. Now, Iran is surrounded by pro-American and Israeli elements from different directions. Iran-supported Houthis in Yemen might have serious problems soon, as Iran will not be able to support them anymore. Soon, Iran will come to a road junction, either to have a deal with the US/Israel and change its policies or continue the conflict with Israel and the USA. Given the history of Iran, it is very likely that Iran will come to a deal/agreement with USA and Israel in 2025.

We can't say Russia is totally lost. Russia still keeps its ports in Syria. In addition to this, Russia can use the allocated source in Syria for the war in Ukraine. The losses in Syria may help Russia end the war in a better position in 2025 or so. The war between Ukraine and Russia is likely to end in 2025.

We only watched part I of Game of Syria for now. Israel, USA, UK, Turkiye, PYD, HTS , and all ethnic groups in Syria are currently writing the second part. However, it was easy to remove the Assad regime from Syria. However, establishing a new regime will not be as easy as ending the Assad regime. Also, there are many risks involved in the second part. For example, finding an agreed governance model between all the parties mentioned above in Syria will not be easy. In addition to this, what will happen to the Syria National Army (SMO) and HTS forces? These people are paid soldiers, and most don’t have a specific national liability. Their primary motivation is Islamic feelings and financial benefits. It will not be easy to develop a national army from these armed people in Syria. Furthermore, the socioeconomic situation in Syria is almost a disaster. The GDP per person was around USD 4200 in 2011. But, it is USD 400 now. There is no industry in the country. There are more than 6 million Syrian refugees in neighbouring countries of Syria. In addition to this, there are at least 6-7 million internally displaced people (IDP). There is no ready income source for all these Syrian refugees and IDPs in Syria. Therefore, unless substantial aid and development money reaches Syria, there is no possibility of Syrian refugees returning to Syria. Some lessons were learned in Afghanistan and Libya. Such as Afghanistan, the UN Member countries and international organisations haven’t yet recognised the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. According to many countries and the UN, many of the ministers of the Afghan Government are still on the terrorist list. Therefore, most countries cannot fund Afghanistan's development and/or aid projects. As a result, there is a very high poverty problem in the country, and this causes external migration out of Afghanistan. Many Afghans are still trying to migrate to other countries through illegal ways. Also, after the removal of the Kaddafi regime in Libya, the international actors involved in Libya haven’t managed to find an agreed government model between the local and international actors. This causes socio-economic problems for the people of Libya, and therefore, many Libyans try to migrate to other countries through illegal ways. Unfortunately, many of them die on this journey.

Also, there is serious drug production in Syria. The methamphetamine type of drugs produced in Syria is trafficked to its neighbouring countries. If the current situation continues in the country, Syria will be a real paradise for drug producers and traffickers. Of course, not only drugs but other types of criminal activities can widely be seen in Syria. In addition to this, as happened in Afghanistan and Libya, Syria can be another destination for all types of terrorist organisations.

Furthermore, Israel expanded its occupation within Syria and destroyed the entire Syrian army, weapons, navy, etc. We can say that Syria has no power to resist any external threat at this point. The Kurdish armed group called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) wants to announce an autonomous region in Northern Syria. Turkiye is very much against this action and, in response, increased its operations in the country through SMO.

The most important part is sharing the oil reserves, which are mainly located in the northeast of the country and controlled by PYD. The Kurds represent around 10% of the total population of Syria. However, they currently control most of the country's oil reserves. It is estimated that the annual value of Syrian oil is around USD 3 billion. In addition to this, natural gas is also stored in the same region. So, the share of the oil income will be one of the most challenging topics between the ethnic groups in Syria. The PYD has around 150,000 armed soldiers and is fully funded by the USA. Therefore, PYD counts on the USA a lot. However, there are Arabic tribes in the region, and they don’t accept the control of PYD over oil and gas reserves. If there is no solution found between these groups, a civil war can happen anytime in Syria. Of course, such a civil war is not the benefit of any party in Syria.

Overall, part II is a bumpy road for all parts involved in Syria. All parties involved in Syria, including the UN, should immediately decide on the status of HTS. It is not logical that they talk and meet with HTS (which is on the terrorist list of the UN and many countries) but at the same time keep the HTS on the terrorist list. The same goes for some other well-developed countries too. The UK, USA, and France have already announced they are talking with the HTS. If the HTS is seen as the governor of Syria, then UN member countries urgently meet and remove the HTS from the terrorist list. The World Bank, EU , and other relevant development organisations needs to channel immediate development funding for Syria. Otherwise, there are great risks that the second part of the Syria game will be an unhappy situation for all countries currently involved in Syria. Of course, like in previous cases, the neighbouring countries will be negatively affected by this situation.